Adesanya vs Strickland | Who Will Win the Fight?
UFC 293: Prediction for Adesanya vs Strickland
On the 10th of September UFC fans will turn their attention to the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, as Israel Adesanya, will be taking on Sean Strickland to try and retain his middleweight title. Below, we have a closer look at the two opponents and make some prediction of how the fight will develop and who we think will eventually win.
A Tale of Two Fighters
When it comes to height, Adesanya is taller by 8 cm, but more importantly, he also boasts a significant reach advantage of 10 cm. To top it off, the New Zealander also has an ape index advantage of 2 cm. So, before they even step into the ring, Strickland will know that he is at a bit of a disadvantage.
Adesanya is a master in the cage, blending calculated striking with precision. He has very impressive striking stats, boasting 3.94 significant strikers per minute with an accuracy of 49%. His ability to change stances without thinking is something that keeps his rivals guessing, while his long reach gives him the chance to control the range and maintain distance. However, he does have a weakness, which is that his take down defence rate stands at 77% – he is vulnerable against those who are good at grappling.
Strickland’s stats are not as impressive as Adesanya’s, but his relentless pace and gritty approach make him a very challenging opponent. He averages 5.86 significant hits every 60 seconds and, although he has a 41% strike accuracy, his volume, and pressure can help him to wear down his rivals. He has an 84% take down defence, which will help him to nullify Adesanya’s attempts to bring him to the canvas. The American has very good grappling skills, which the Kiwi will be wary of.
On fight day, the New Zealander will be 34 years old, while the American will be 32 – age should not be a factor that determines who goes on to win this fight and claim the title.
UFC 293 Countdown: Adesanya vs Strickland – Full Episode
The Fighting Records of Adesanya and Strickland
Adesanya will step into the octagon with a 24-2 record, which includes a total of 16 knockouts. His last fight was against Alex Pereira a little over five months ago, which he won by KO in Round 2.
Strickland, on the other hand, will start this fight with a 27-5 record, with a total of 11 knockouts. He fought more recently than his opponent, as his last fight was just over two months ago. Then he took on Abusupiyan Magomedov and won by TKO in the second round.
How Both Fighters Can Win
The key to Adesanya coming out on top lies in his well-known range control and striking process. He must use his reach advantage to keep Strickland at arm’s length, while wearing him down, both mentally and physically, with his unpredictability and crisp striking. If he can avoid be taken to the canvas by the American and keep it a standing fight, then he should find the openings to deliver some devastating blows.
If Strickland is to come out on top in this fight, then he needs to pressure Adesanya for the duration of the match. It is imperative that he closes the distance between the pair, while focusing on bringing the Kiwi down to the mat. If he can exploit Adesanya’s known take down defence weakness, then he will find himself in a position where he can control the bout and claim the win.
Who Will Win the Fight?
If you check out the current odds that are being offered for this fight, then you will see that Adesanya is the overwhelming favourite to win and retain his title.
However, the UFC betting experts from Schweizer Sportwetten believe the fight will be a lot closer than expected, with Strickland causing Adesanya plenty of issues with his grappling. Despite this, the Swiss bookmaker site, that reaches 93.7% prediction accuracy, is in tune with the majority of the other bookmakers, predicting for Adesanya to win, probably by TKO, in over 3.5 rounds.
