Why Bia Mesquita Should Defeat Montse Rendon at UFC Vegas 114
When the cage door closes at UFC Vegas 114, the women’s bantamweight matchup between Bia Mesquita and Montse Rendon presents a classic clash of styles: elite submission grappling versus gritty durability. While Rendon deserves respect for her toughness and consistency, the fighter who should win this bout is Mesquita—and the reasons are difficult to ignore.
The Grappling Gap Is Massive
Mesquita entered MMA with one of the most decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu backgrounds in the sport. Since transitioning to mixed martial arts, she has translated those skills perfectly, compiling an undefeated 6-0 professional record with the majority of her wins coming by submission.
Her UFC debut was particularly telling. Mesquita submitted Irina Alekseeva via rear-naked choke in the second round, immediately demonstrating that her grappling pedigree works against high-level competition.
Against Rendon, that advantage may be overwhelming. Rendon is a solid fighter with a 7-1 record, but all seven of her victories have come by decision—meaning she has yet to prove she can finish fights at this level.
That stylistic contrast matters. If Mesquita gets the fight to the mat, history suggests the outcome is only a matter of time.
Rendon’s Path to Victory Is Narrow
To be fair, Rendon does bring strengths into this matchup. She is the taller fighter at 5’8″ and has slightly longer reach, and she is known for grinding out fights and dragging opponents into competitive decisions.
Her toughness and cardio could become factors if she can keep the fight standing and force Mesquita into extended striking exchanges. Rendon also averages roughly 3.09 significant strikes per minute, which shows she is active enough to win rounds if the fight stays upright.
But that’s the problem: she likely has to fight a nearly perfect fight to win. One mistake in the clinch or one sloppy scramble could end the bout.
Mesquita Is Favored for a Reason
Oddsmakers and analysts overwhelmingly favor Mesquita, with betting lines making her a heavy favorite entering the fight.
The reasoning is simple: elite grapplers with finishing ability are extremely dangerous in three-round fights. Even if Mesquita struggles early, she only needs one successful takedown or back take to flip the momentum instantly.
And unlike many pure grapplers, she has shown improving striking and physicality during her short MMA career.
The Likely Outcome
Rendon’s toughness means she might survive the early exchanges, but Mesquita’s pressure and grappling control should eventually take over.
Prediction:
Mesquita by submission, Round 2.
If that happens, it would mark another step forward for a fighter many believe could become a serious contender in the women’s bantamweight division.
