Analysts expect stronger on-shore channeling once New Zealand launches its online casino licensing regime
New Zealand’s new online casino regulations are likely to be a major game-changer, just like the New Zealand MMA world is about to be shaken up with the new contenders. In a new press release, the government announced a full licensing regime for online casinos scheduled to come into effect by December 2026.
New Zealand health ministry data shows that 31% of adults engaged in online gambling in 2023, with 3.6% of these adults going to other countries to gamble using offshore platforms. Analysts expect these numbers to change significantly with the introduction of a new regulated gaming framework for New Zealand. Currently, offshore gambling site operators are unregulated in New Zealand’s market, creating an environment where foreign platforms can advertise freely, offer aggressive bonuses, and operate without oversight.
With the government preparing to tighten controls and introduce formal licensing, industry observers believe the scene is poised for a major shift, potentially reshaping how New Zealanders access and interact with online gambling services.
New Zealand prepares for a shift in regulated online gambling
In mid-2025, the government instituted the Online Casino Gambling Bill, the first major effort to create a regulated market for online casino operators in New Zealand. The proposal is expected to generate a licensing backlog capped at 15 licenses, with a 12-month waiting period for the first wave. These licenses will be allocated through an auction system for pre-qualified operators.
If granted, licenses will run for three years, provided operators remain compliant. It’s similar to requiring every fighter to clear post-fight medicals, complete media obligations, and pass drug tests before being allowed back into competition.
For more than a year, control over the market has been dangerously loose: no oversight of advertising, no checks on operations, and no accountability. Offshore casinos have been able to attract Kiwi players with promotions such as $20 free no deposit NZ, offering small bonuses that require no upfront deposit and making it easy for players to join unregulated platforms.
Analysts now expect the newly implemented framework to deliver significantly greater control over the local gambling scene and reduce the influence of offshore operators.
Industry expects major movement toward licensed local platforms
Regulators expect that players will remain on-shore. The players will not be on the unregulated, offshore sites. There is a strong demand from the players to use sites that provide true safety and regulation, much in the same way that sports fans expect to see performers compete in a fully controlled, sanctioned event.
You’re going to see a high level of control over Gambling New Zealand, and just like you see in a US State with a Commission over professional boxing, you’re going to see a system that allows for the New Zealand market to control the revenue, the compliance and the tools used to minimize the harm.
In a plan to fund several community programs, the government plans to raise the duty on offshore gambling from 12% to 16%. However, many offshore operators will face the decision to obtain the necessary licenses to operate legally or simply leave the market altogether, as increased compliance costs and the new tax will make operating offshore even more expensive.
What the new licensing rules mean for offshore operators
For offshore operators, this new framework goes beyond a simple adjustment of the rules of the game; it is a total reconfiguration of the game itself, described by government documents as a ‘three-phased assessment’ followed by a market-entry auction for applicants wishing to obtain a license.
Those who do not engage with the process, or who do not pass the assessment, will forfeit access to Kiwi players after the new rules become law. In addition to the confiscation of the illegal gambling revenues, government documents indicate that the fines that will be imposed for operating without a license will be ‘several million.’ This will be a massive enforcement effort.
Most observers believe that the effect of the new offshore rules will be that many of the offshore casinos will be forced to leave the market altogether, or ‘wear the new rules.’
Enhanced Transparency in Betting and Improved Player Safety
The new bill enhances player protection on a whole new level. Measures that are to be implemented by licensed operators include:
- Verified user identity processes
- Mandatory age exclusion
- Tools to assist users in gambling responsibly
- Clear outline on deposits, withdrawals, bonuses, and other terms.
Concerning the anything-goes offshore setting, players may be on the brink of having access to safer, cleaner, and more transparent betting options, analogous to a fighter’s transition from unsanctioned bouts to sanctioned fights with regulatory oversight.
Direct legislation of gambling markets leads to better consumer protection, researchers say. Should New Zealand’s licensed gambling operators complete the required standards, players will gain access to platforms that are more protected and will be provided with enhanced levels of consumer protection.
