Dvalishvili Heavily Favored to Retain Bantamweight Crown in UFC 323 Rematch Against Yan
As the UFC closes out its final numbered pay-per-view event of 2025, all eyes are on T-Mobile Arena for UFC 323, where bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili aims to etch his name further into the history books. The main event pits the undefeated titleholder against former champion Petr Yan in a highly anticipated rematch, with betting lines reflecting a clear consensus: Dvalishvili is the man to beat.
Dvalishvili (18-4), the Georgian wrestling machine who captured the 135-pound belt for a second time last year, enters as a staggering -500 favorite according to FanDuel Sportsbook, implying an 83.3% chance of victory. A $100 wager on the champion would return just $20 in profit, underscoring the low-risk, low-reward nature of backing the favorite. Yan (17-6), the Russian striking savant and ex-champ, sits at +340, offering a potential $340 payout on a $100 bet—tempting for those believing in an upset.
This rematch stems from their 2023 clash at Dvalishvili ground out a unanimous decision victory en route to his title run. Since then, Dvalishvili has defended the belt three times in 2025 alone, showcasing relentless cardio and takedown pressure that has overwhelmed elite competition. Yan, meanwhile, has rebounded with a pair of wins but enters off a controversial split-decision loss to a top contender, raising questions about his current form at age 32.
Oddsmakers anticipate a grueling affair likely to go the distance. The over/under for total rounds is set at 4.5, with the over heavily favored at -410, while the fight going the full five rounds is listed at -370. For method of victory props, Dvalishvili by decision leads at -195, reflecting his style of wearing down opponents through volume and control rather than finishes. Yan’s best path to reclaiming gold? A decision win at +600, capitalizing on his crisp boxing if he can keep the fight standing.
“This is Dvalishvili’s fight to lose,” said ESPN MMA analyst Anthony Smith. “Merab makes a living out of beating people who are in a lot of ways better than him, and he does it by making them tired.” Betting expert Ian Parker echoed the sentiment, recommending Dvalishvili by decision at -250 for those seeking value on the chalk.
| Prop Bet | Odds (DraftKings/FanDuel) |
|---|---|
| Dvalishvili by Decision | -195 / -250 |
| Dvalishvili by Submission | +750 / +800 |
| Yan by Decision | +600 / +550 |
| Fight Goes the Distance | -370 / -360 |
| Over 4.5 Rounds | -410 / -420 |
Yan, a former undisputed champion known for his technical striking and knockout power, would need to neutralize Dvalishvili’s grappling early to shift the odds. At +450 for a stoppage win via KO/TKO or submission, the underdog’s path involves exploiting any fatigue from Dvalishvili’s packed schedule—four title fights in one calendar year would be a UFC first if the champ prevails.
The co-main event adds further intrigue, with flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja (-225) defending against surging prospect Joshua Van (+205), but the spotlight remains on the bantamweight summit. With UFC 323 marking the end of the ESPN PPV era, fans and bettors alike are piling in early, pushing the event’s handle toward record territory.
Gates open at 3 p.m. PT Saturday, with the main card airing at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV. Whether you’re riding the favorite or hunting value on the underdog, one thing’s clear: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 promises to deliver the drama that defines UFC’s year-end spectacles.
