UFC Picks and Analysis – Best Bets of the Week: UFC Vegas 14
Confident UFC Picks record 8-6
Despite a rocky start, our confident UFC picks are 6-1 in the last two events I picked and now I am back to continue the winning streak and hopefully develop a more impressive record…
Every week I will be making 5 UFC picks but with a twist! Three of the picks will be my most confident without picking huge favorites because who cares if you have a stellar record if you are only picking -500 favorites. The fourth pick will be a prop bet and the fifth pick is my major value underdog of the week.
Confident UFC Picks
Kanako Murata -165
Japanese wrestler Kanako Murata makes her UFC debut this weekend against longtime veteran Randa Markos who will tie the record for most fights in the strawweight division with this bout. This is classic UFC matchmaking with the young up and comer making her debut against an aging vet in hopes of the young fighter making a name for herself with a win over one of the most recognizable fighters in the division. Murata is a former gold medalist in the Asian Wrestling Championships and was one of the most feared female wrestlers in the world before transitioning to MMA in 2016.
Markos is a great grappler in her own right, but Murata is just on another level. Her methodical takedown set-ups make her entries almost impossible to see coming and once the opponent is on the ground her control, ground and pound, and submission instincts are as impressive as anyone in MMA today. Her striking needs some work, but she is great at using feints and constant in and out movement to complement her takedowns and grappling exchanges. In the future, a great striker who can defend a takedown like Joanna Jedrzejczyk could end up being her kryptonite, but I don’t see Markos being the one to shut her down. Watch out for the Von flue choke in this one as Murata has two wins with it and looks for the choke almost every fight.
Miranda Granger -115
Although we lost the original main event on this card, fans of woman’s MMA will be thrilled with this card as it features some of the brightest prospects in the sport today. Murata, Kay Hanson, Cory McKenna, and Miranda Granger are all fresh in the UFC and have the potential to be top 5 fighters in the future.
Granger’s striking is an odd mix of methodical and brawler. She mostly likes to work from the outside and use her long limbs to keep opponents at her range and pick them apart with 1-2’s down the middle. But other times she is rushing into the pocket with wild hooks and ending up in the clinch where she can beat up her opponents with knees to the body. Her random recklessness can get her caught but I think Granger has an easy time picking Yoder apart from range and if it hits the ground, I think she can hold her own and grind out a decision.
Louis Smolka -130
Smolka has been around for so long it’s crazy to think he is still only 29 years old and arguably just now hitting his fighting prime. He was cut by the UFC in 2017 after suffering four consecutive losses to the likes of Brandon Moreno, Ray Borg, and Tim Elliot. But after an impressive three-fight winning streak with three finishes, he was signed back to the UFC in late 2018 as a bantamweight and is 2-2 since moving up. I think this fight with Quinonez hits the ground early and often where Smolka will be able to use his superior scrambling ability to grind out rounds on top and maybe even finish him.
Underdog of the Week
Khaos Williams +200
I know Khaos is not his real name but still how can you not bet on a guy with that name? In all seriousness, I think this fight should be closer to even odds with Alhassan as a slight favorite. Williams exploded onto the UFC scene with his 27 second KO of Alex Morono on short notice earlier this year and now in just his second UFC fight, he might get the chance to headline his first card if Rafael dos Santos can’t find another opponent. Talk about a meteoric rise.
Both men like to stand, and trade and this matchup has fight of the night written all over it. What little film we have on Williams is not very impressive, but he is a physical freak and you can see the technique is there he just has to learn how to suppress his instinct with his fighting IQ. Either way, someone is going to sleep in this fight, and if your bookie has fight of the night props bet the house on this matchup.
Parlay of the Week
Kay Hanson, Julian Marquez, Dontale Mays +185
Favorites have been on fire recently with a 29-3 record and I love this pairing of decent favorites to get some nice plus money.
