UFC On FOX 11 Predictions

Three days later and another UFC card. Back in my days (I never thought I would become that old guy, but I did), a UFC card came around once every two or three months! A few days ago, I went 8-5 on the TUF Nations Finale pick: not my best. I want to make a change on my opinion column. Well so far, you’ve heard my voice, but I brought two friends along…sorry had to do it.

A battle of the big boys to start off the evening. Both Lewis and May will be making their UFC debuts, and both are finishers. Lewis has stopped all of his opponents in his nine victories (eight via tko/ko and one via submission). May, who is undefeated, has six TKO/KO victories and one decision win. Both fighters have heavy hands. May has a significant size advantage at 6’8″, Lewis is 6’3″.

I love when undefeated fighters square off, someone’s perfect record goes “bye-bye” and you learn a lot on how they rebound. This featherweight battle will be the second match up of fighters making their UFC debut. Skelly is a veteran of Bellator FC and has solid wrestling skills (NAIA All-American wrestler for Oklahoma City University). Bektic has a ground game as well and good hands, I think Bektic will need to stuff Skelly’s take down attempts and beat him on his feet.

In a battle of the flyweights, UFC veteran Dustin Ortiz looks to bounce back from a split decision loss to John Moraga against newcomer Ray Borg. Borg is another undefeated fighter with his record on the line (6-0 pro, 4-0 amateur). The “Tazmexican” has grappling skills, winning all of his amateur bouts via submission in the first round under two minutes. As a pro, Borg has finished five of his six opponents (four submissions, one tko). Ortiz has a high pace tempo, and it can throw his opponents’ game plans off. He has never been finished off in his three defeats and he keeps it close with his takedown defense and counter striking.

Hernani Perpetuo is a talented kick boxer with many amateur and professional titles. Perpetuo has since transitioned to MMA and has done quite well amassing as 17-3 record, with an eight-fight winning streak. Mein has a lot of fight experience at the young age of 24. This will be Mein’s third UFC fight (1-1 in the UFC) coming off of a devastating loss to Matt Brown via TKO. Another loss could put Mein in the hot seat.

After losing in his UFC debut via decision to Buddy Roberts, submission specialist Caio Magalhaes has won his last two fights in the octagon and looks to make it three in a row against newcomer (and late replacement) Luke Zachrich. Magalhaes was originally supposed to fight Josh Samman, howeve Samman had to pull out of this contest due to a hamstring tear. The Ohio native Zachrich was a contestant in TUF 7 and was eliminated early in the show. Zachrich is a brownbelt in BJJ  11 of his 13 victories have been via submission (seven) and tko/ko (six). Zachrich will have a difficult time out grappling Magalhaes, who is a blackbelt in BJJ and a Brazilian national champion.

Every fight in the UFC is important. This fight, specifically, is do-or-die for Estevan Payan as he has lost both of his UFC matches and a third straight loss could result “El Terrible” to be released by the promotion. For Alex White, this is important as he will be making his debut and looking to stay undefeated. Both of these fighters display good boxing skills. White has displayed submission skills as well, winning five of his nine fights via submission.

A lightweight bout between two fighters who have been professional mma fighters of over 11 years (Masvidal – 11-years experience, Healy – 13-years experience). Healy will have the grappling advantage in this match, with 15 of his 29 victories coming via submission. Masvidal will have the edge in the striking department, he also has been training with American Top Team and improving his ground game. Healy has yet to find success in the UFC (0-3, 1 NC). Masvidal will be able to stuff Healy’s take downs, and if the fight hits the ground, it should be pretty even.

A welterweight battle between two seasoned UFC vets. This is a well-evened fight as both fighters are solid in the striking and grappling department. Baczynski last fought in UFC Fight Night 31 in November 2013, winning via decision over Neil Magny. Baczynski has finished all but two of his pro wins (seven tko/ko and ten submissions). Alves has not fought since March 2012, where he was submitted by Martin Kampann. Alves was a number one contender and lost to Georges St. Pierre in a welterweight title fight back at UFC 100. Baczynski is a tall welterweight at 6’3″ with a decent reach advantage over the shorter Alves who is 5’9″, this will play in the “Polish Pistola’s” favor when the two are exchanging on their feet.

A lightweight bout with the winner most likely to be the next in line for a title shot. This will be a grappling clinic between the black belt BJJ / BJJ champion Dos Anjos and Russian combat sambo / world sambo champion Nurmagomedov. Both fighters have great takedown defense, Nurmagomedov has better takedowns, however. This fight will be very technical, which can be good or bad (good for those who like the technique display, bad for those who want to see a good old slobber knocker).

A middleweight matchup between grappling specialist Yoel Romero and striking specialist Brad Tavares. The last sentence is ironic to me, Romero indeed is an accomplished wrestler with many medals and huge wrestling/grappling tournament wins (including a silver medal in freestyle wrestling in the 2000 Olympics). Romero has won all of his fights via tko/ko, and even his only loss to Rafael Cavalcante was via knockout. Tavares, as mentioned earlier, has solid striking and his camp always has a solid game plan for him. Tavares’ only loss is to Aaron Simpson via decision.

This lightweight clash between two explosive fighters a FOTN candidate. Both of these fighters are muay thai champions and starting to string together winning streaks. The winner of this bout will make a push for top five contender. Cerrone, a one-time US muay thai champion, also is well versed in submissions with 14 of his 22 wins ending via submission. Barboza is a muay thai specialist (25-3 muay thai records) and has won nine of his 13 fights via tko/ko. Barboza is also a purple belt in BJJ, so he has not lost in the ground game.

The ladies take the fight before the main event between two wrestling specialists. Tate has yet to win in the UFC, losing to Ronday Rousey and Cat Zingano. Carmouche is 1-2 in the UFC with her last fight being a decision loss to Alexis Davis. Carmouche is very strong and can grind out he opponents. Tate has a mean ground-and-pound when she is controlling the top. The winner of this match will have to stay off of their backs in this one.

The main event of the evening will be a heavyweight battle between the top two contenders with the winner facing heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez. Werdum is a BJJ specialist with many high profile wins including submissions victories over Antonio Nogeuira and Fedor Emelianenko (who at the time was the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world). Browne is a giant at 6’7″ and he will use this in addition to his striking advantage to keep Werdum at bay. Browne’s stock and hype will sky rocket especially if he finishes off Werdum. For Werdum, who is 36 years old, this may be his last hurrah for UFC gold.

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