What Percentage of Underdogs Win UFC Fights?

There’s no denying the surprise of seeing an underdog beat a favorite in UFC. Watching a no-name take down a seemingly unbeatable world champion is proof that anything can happen in the octagon. How often does it really happen though? In this article, you’re going to find out the percentage of underdogs that have come out on top in UFC fights and get a feel for what helps them win.

What We Know

According to data from 2023 and so far in 2024, underdogs have won about 32% of fights, give or take about. This means that even though favorites are still favored heavily, it’s possible for an underdog who puts in the work to come out on top.

To make your own predictions and build on insight, you should check out resources dedicated to studying fights and fighters. To make the best UFC predictions, platforms such as Sportzino is the way to go. They’re going to give you more than just simple records- fighter’s statistics, their recent performance, and how they match up stylistically with other fighters.

Why Upsets Happen

A few reasons a lesser-known fighter could beat a well-known one:

Preparation: Maybe the underdog has been preparing specifically for this fight and knows their opponents’ style like the back of their hand.
Hunger: The underdog might be hungrier than anyone else in the building because this is their shot at proving themselves on such a big stage.
Underrated Skills: Some new fighters have hidden talents that oddsmakers aren’t aware of yet.
Overconfidence: Sometimes favorites will underestimate an opponent which leads them not putting as much effort into preparing as they should have been doing.

More Than Just Favorites and Underdogs

Assuming all underdogs will win is foolish; there are many factors that go into making accurate predictions:

Fighter Analysis: Dig deep into each person fighting; what are their weaknesses? What are they good at? How do they fight?
Injury Status: Injuries play a big role in any sport. Make sure to stay updated with any health issues fighters might be having before placing predictions on them.
Fight Location: Altitude and extreme temperatures can affect fighters differently. Consider the location of the fight before making your pick.
Recent Activity: Who has been fighting more recently? A fighter coming off a long layoff might have some rust to shake off compared to someone who is in a rhythm.
Don’t let emotions cloud your judgment; make sure you’re doing objective analysis when making predictions.

Underdogs beat favorites about 32% of the time according to our data, but that’s not enough information for accurate predicting. Dig into fighters’ records, their styles, and external factors such as location or temperature. You’d be surprised what can help you boost accuracy.

To find great information and test your prediction skills on UFC fights check out reputable platforms dedicated to the sport. And remember, being confident doesn’t mean blindly picking underdogs- it means having a solid understanding of both fighters and using that knowledge wisely.