Three Contenders Likely One Win Away from a UFC Title Shot
Long-overlooked contenders are seemingly finally getting their shot in the UFC. For a long time, Arman Tsarukyan was one of the names that came with an asterisk.
Withdrawing from his UFC 311 title fight with Islam Makhachev 24 hours before he was supposed to make the walk to the cage due to a back injury put him in the UFC’s doghouse, and Dana White made it clear the next shot wouldn’t be his. Already the owner of a win over Charles Oliveira, he submitted Dan Hooker to begin the climb back. In September at UFC 331, he finished it.
Long Overlooked Contenders on the Brink
Online betting outlets made the Armenian an overwhelming favourite to knock off Mauricio Ruffy in Los Angeles. The reputable 5Gringos online casino and betting platform installed the number three ranked lightweight on the planet as a -300 shot to get the win, but when he was stunned by an early right hand by the Brazilian underdog, it seemed like an upset could well be on the cards. Then, Arman pinned Ruffy to the fence and knocked him out with elbows at 4:56 of the first round to claim his sixth straight win, moving him to 24-3.
He’d said he needed a finish. He got one, then said Justin Gaethje is scared of him. The champion, whose hands still hurt from June’s punishing win over Ilia Topuria, has confirmed that he won’t fight again in 2026. He has, however, called Tsarukyan “clearly the next contender.”
Carlos Prates took a similar road. After knocking out Leon Edwards at UFC 322, he broke down Jack Della Maddalena in Perth back in May, finishing him at 3:17 of the third round. Makhachev, fresh from beating Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330, named Prates the more deserving challenger, and Prates says he’s been told he’s next.
But behind them, the queue keeps reshuffling. Three more contenders may need just one more win to secure their own respective shots.
Paulo Costa
Five years after his weight problems began, Paulo Costa has finally stopped fighting the scale. He missed the middleweight limit of 185 pounds for his 2021 bout with Marvin Vettori, saw it move up 20 pounds, and lost a decision anyway. Wins over Luke Rockhold in 2022 and Roman Kopylov in 2025 bracketed 2024 decision defeats to Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland. Then came the permanent move.
At UFC 327 in April, the Brazilian moved up to light heavyweight and ended Azamat Murzakanov’s unbeaten run with a head kick at 1:23 of the third round, and Joe Rogan later said Costa could be the interim champion. His only previous title shot came at middleweight and ended in a second-round stoppage by Israel Adesanya at UFC 253 in September 2020.
Carlos Ulberg won the vacant light heavyweight strap that night in April, knocking out Jiri Prochazka despite tearing his ACL. Costa turned down a short-notice Magomed Ankalaev fight, says he has one contractual fight left, and wants it for an interim belt he claims the UFC won’t sanction. Ankalaev says he’s willing to fight, and with champion Ulberg floating Khalil Rountree’s name, Costa may well have to fight and beat the Dagestani to have any hope of securing a shot at the gold.
Michael Morales
Nineteen wins should be a ticket. Michael Morales’s still hasn’t been stamped. He’s 19-0 and 7-0 in the UFC, and his last three wins were first-round stoppages: Neil Magny in August 2024, Gilbert Burns in May 2025, and Sean Brady at UFC 322 last November.
A January 2026 date with champion Makhachev was floated, and both men turned it down. By fight week of UFC 330, where Morales weighed in as backup, the champion was questioning his inactivity. Then the champion beat Ian Machado Garry, stretched his UFC-record streak to 17, and named Prates as the man he wants to face next instead.
Morales says he’s accepted a January fight against a “very tough opponent” he won’t name — neither Prates nor Machado Garry, by his account — and expects to fight for the title in June; some outlets have suggested that name might well be the similarly unbeaten-but-inactive Shavkat Rakhmonov.
How long can an unbeaten welterweight be kept waiting by his own inactivity? Win in January, and the honest answer should be: not much longer.
Paddy Pimblett
January’s loss to Justin Gaethje could well have punctured the hype. In fact, it very nearly did.
Pimblett had beaten Tony Ferguson, King Green, and then Michael Chandler at UFC 314 before Gaethje beat him for the interim belt on a unanimous decision at UFC 324, his only title shot and his only UFC defeat. The response came at UFC 329 in July, where he choked Benoit Saint Denis unconscious with a D’Arce 52 seconds in, moving to 8-1 in the octagon. But the real moment Pimblett’s stock grew came one month prior, and he wasn’t even in the Octagon.
Fresh off his win against Pimblett, American veteran Gaethje then shockingly stopped the previously unbeaten Ilia Topuria as a massive underdog at the White House at UFC Freedom 250 to become the undisputed lightweight champion. Since then, he has scoffed at the idea of rematches with both Pimblett and Topuria, and won’t fight again this year, with the earlier-mentioned Arman Tsarukyan likely first in line.
Before UFC 329, Pimblett admitted Tsarukyan, Oliveira, and Max Holloway sit ahead of him. Beat one of them, or win the long-anticipated grudge match with former champion Topuria, and the argument for a Pimblett title shot will likely be too loud to ignore.
