UFC 326 Preview: How Charles Oliveira Can Beat Max Holloway for the BMF Title
Charles Oliveira has been finished before. He has been dropped, submitted, and counted out more than once across a career that now spans 47 professional fights. And yet here he is again, walking into T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada, on March 7, 2026, at UFC 326, as the man trying to take something from Max Holloway.
The BMF title, a belt born from spectacle and sustained by violence, sits with Holloway because he earned it with a 5th round knockout at UFC 300. Oliveira, at 36-11, is the underdog. The betting lines say so. The public money says so. But Oliveira has made a living out of being the wrong guy to bet against, and the path to victory for him in this fight is real if he follows it.
Here is how Charles Oliveira can win at UFC 326:
- Close distance early and avoid prolonged mid-range exchanges
- Force clinch battles and mix in dirty boxing
- Chain takedowns into submission attempts over five rounds
What Oliveira Brings to the Table at 36-11
Oliveira holds the UFC record for most submission wins at 17. He also holds the record for most finishes at 21 and most bonuses at 21. Those numbers belong to a fighter who has been active, aggressive, and willing to put himself in bad positions to find better ones.
His last outing was a 2nd round submission of Mateusz Gamrot at UFC Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro on October 11, 2025. Before that, he beat Michael Chandler by unanimous decision at UFC 309. He lost to Ilia Topuria at UFC 317, getting knocked out in the 1st round.
That loss matters. Oliveira can be vulnerable early when exchanges become wild. But Holloway and Topuria are very different fighters, and Oliveira’s path to winning this fight depends on recognizing that difference and exploiting it.
Where the Odds Sit and How Bettors Are Reading This Fight
Holloway opened at -154 on DraftKings Sportsbook and has since slid to -210 at FanDuel, while Oliveira moved from +120 to +162 over the same period. The public is heavy on Holloway, which often creates value on the other side for those willing to take the underdog.
Bettors tracking these shifts across sportsbooks, comparing betting offers, and shopping for the best number on Oliveira could find worthwhile returns if “Do Bronxs” pulls off the upset. Odds can move quickly in fight week, so comparing numbers across platforms before placing any wager is always important.
Oliveira’s finishing ability is the variable that makes him a live dog at plus money. His 21 career UFC finishes mean any round can end abruptly, and method-of-victory props on a submission or knockout carry longer odds worth considering at this price point.
The Numbers That Favor Holloway and Why They Can Be Misleading
Max lands 7.24 strikes per minute to Oliveira’s 3.48. That is nearly double the output, and on paper, it looks like a mismatch on the feet. Holloway also defends takedowns at an 84% rate, which complicates any wrestling-heavy game plan from Oliveira, whose takedown accuracy sits at 40% with an average of 2.37 attempts per 15 minutes.
Those numbers describe tendencies, though, and tendencies can be disrupted. Holloway’s volume depends on range and rhythm. He likes to stand at mid-distance and work behind a high-output jab, mixing in combinations over the course of a fight.
He breaks opponents down gradually. He does not carry fight-ending power the way Topuria does. That distinction matters because it gives Oliveira time in the fight that he did not have against Topuria.
Takedown defense percentage also does not fully measure what happens after a fight hits the mat. Oliveira does not need ten takedowns. He may only need one clean entry to create a scramble that leads to a submission attempt.
Close Range Is Where Oliveira Finds His Answers
Vitor Miranda told Sherdog that Oliveira should pursue close-range striking exchanges with Holloway, and the reasoning is sound. Topuria finishes fights with single shots. Holloway needs sustained volume.
If Oliveira can close the distance, dirty box in the clinch, and threaten takedowns from that range, he shortens the fight in a way that favors him.
Oliveira has described his approach as hunting opportunities both on the feet and on the ground. That approach worked against Chandler and Gamrot. It failed against Topuria because Topuria punished him before he could get started.
Holloway has faced elite competition throughout his UFC career, but few opponents present the layered submission danger Oliveira brings. Holloway is hittable. He absorbs strikes at a high rate because his style requires him to stay in the pocket. Oliveira has heavier hands than his strike output would suggest, and a single clean shot in the clinch can lead to a takedown or a move to the ground.
The Submission Threat Changes Everything Once the Fight Hits the Mat
Sometimes Oliveira looks vulnerable. Sometimes he looks untouchable. That volatility is part of what makes him dangerous.
When he finds rhythm, he becomes one of the most aggressive finishers in the sport.
Holloway has proven durable across his career. But he has rarely faced a grappler who can chain submissions together the way Oliveira does. If Oliveira can secure 2 or 3 takedowns across five rounds and keep Holloway on his back for any sustained period, the submission threat becomes constant and exhausting.
The Winner Gets a Busy Road Ahead
Benoit Saint-Denis stopped Dan Hooker in the 2nd round at UFC 325 and immediately called for the winner of this fight. The BMF title now carries forward momentum, and the winner at UFC 326 will have no shortage of opponents waiting.
Oliveira wins this fight by making it ugly, by staying close, by threatening submissions off every clinch exchange, and by refusing to let Holloway settle into his rhythm. The numbers favor Holloway. The ground favors Oliveira. Five rounds is a long time to keep a hunter away from what he wants.
The Rest of the UFC 326 Card Worth Watching
The co-main event is Caio Borralho against Reinier de Ridder at middleweight. Both are coming off losses. Borralho dropped a unanimous decision to Nassourdine Imavov in September, which snapped a 17-fight unbeaten streak.
De Ridder lost via stoppage against Brendan Allen in October. He holds wins over Robert Whittaker, Bo Nickal, and Kevin Holland.
The fight feels like an elimination-style bout between two middleweight contenders ranked seventh and eighth.
Rob Font versus Raul Rosas Jr. at bantamweight carries clear stakes for the division’s future. Rosas, now 21, became the youngest fighter ever signed by the UFC when he earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022 at 17 years old. He sits at 11-1 and has won five of his six UFC bouts.
Font is 38, ranked 12th, and coming off a loss to David Martinez that ended a two-fight winning streak. This bout was originally scheduled for Noche UFC in September 2025, but a rib injury forced Rosas out.
Ortega was scheduled to fight Renato Moicano on the main card, but he withdrew due to injury, and his replacement has not yet been announced.
Conclusion
UFC 326 is not simply a striker-versus-grappler matchup. It is a fight about control — who dictates distance, who forces exchanges, and who imposes pace.
Holloway’s output and durability make him the rightful favorite. But Oliveira’s path is clear and specific. He must deny rhythm, collapse space, and turn every clinch into a threat. He does not need to win minutes. He needs to win moments.
Five rounds is a long time to defend against a submission hunter. If Oliveira can make this fight chaotic and uncomfortable, the BMF belt can change hands.
FAQ
When is UFC 326?
UFC 326 takes place on March 7, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
What is the BMF title in the UFC?
The BMF (Baddest Motherf*****) title is a symbolic championship introduced for high-profile matchups known for action and toughness.
How can Charles Oliveira beat Max Holloway?
Oliveira’s clearest path to victory is closing distance, working in the clinch, mixing takedowns with strikes, and threatening submissions throughout five rounds.
Why is Max Holloway the betting favorite?
Holloway’s striking volume, durability, and experience in five-round fights make him statistically favored, especially if the fight stays at range.
Is this fight likely to end inside the distance?
Given Oliveira’s finishing rate and Holloway’s high-output style, the matchup carries strong potential for a decisive finish.
