Confident Picks Record: 10-7 Underdog Picks: 1-1-2
After a terrible run of underdog picks for our best UFC bets of the week, we finally hit one a few weeks ago with Khaos Williams’ stunning knockout over Abdul Razak Alhassan. Our confident picks record rose to 10-7 and I think this week we have a good chance at a clean sweep!
Billy Quarantillo -125
Odds have been all over the place for this fight and it will probably close as the most even fight of the night. Quanrantillo opened at -140 but money immediately went on Gavin Tucker which dropped Billy Q to +100 at some books which is when I jumped on the number but you can still get him close to even odds.
Tucker is small for the division but that allows him to have arguably the quickest hands at 145. His boxing is crisp and technically sound and although we haven’t seen much of his grappling, his jiu-jitsu skills are lauded by those that train with him. And even with all of that, I think Billy Q runs away with this one. Billy’s cardio and consistent pace is his biggest strength and he has the methodical striking to slowly beat him down and drag him into the later rounds at a pace he hasn’t seen before. On the ground, I think this would be a bit of a stalemate and could go to either man but don’t be surprised to see Billy shooting for takedowns as Tucker’s cardio dwindles. If you are wondering how this could play out, go watch Gavin Tucker vs Rick Glenn.
Kevin holland -130
Kevin Holland has had one hell of a 2020 and I think he continues his impressive pandemic run with a shellacking of Jacare Souza. Holland joined the UFC late in 2018 and just over two years later he is stepping inside the octagon for his 10th UFC fight, his 5th this year. A win over Jacare would finally put him where he deserves in the top 10-15 but this is also the toughest matchup of his young career.
Jacare might be past his prime but he is still one of the greatest jiu-jitsu practitioners in MMA history and I was always impressed with his striking for someone who came into the sport with a single discipline. But there is a time for nostalgia and what could have been, and there is a time to get real and we have to get real with this one. There is a reason the UFC matched up one of their top-up and comers with a big name on the brink of retirement. I think Holland defends Jacare’s predictable takedown attempts and uses rangy striking to pick him apart from a distance.
Deiveson Figueiredo -295
Jump on this one while you can because -295 is a bit disrespectful for the champion in my opinion. Besides parlays, I rarely bet anything over -250 but this matchup is too sweet to pass up at -295. I’ve always like Moreno, he came into the UFC as a really young flyweight, and just a year into his UFC career he was headlining a card against Sergio Pettis. He hit a bit of a stumble in 2017-2018 but since then he is 4-0-1 with two knockouts, pretty impressive for a guy that came into the sport as a Jiu-Jitsu standout. But with all of that said Figgy is still going to finish him in under 2 rounds. Moreno has future championship material written all over him, but this is too soon and the wrong guy to expose him against. I guess the UFC needed a headliner so you can’t blame them too much, but I still hate seeing a top young contender getting thrown to the wolves too early. I would love to be wrong and see Moreno walking out the champion, but honestly, Figgy under anything -300 against anyone in the division should be an automatic play.
Underdog of The Week: Charles Oliveira +150
I’ve been saying for years that Oliveira is a sleeper contender at 155 and I also think he would give Khabib one of his toughest tests to date but I guess we will never get to see how that plays out. On the other end, while I respect Ferguson and will always be hyped for his fights, I’ve never been sold on his skills. He has had an oddly underwhelming level of competition since joining the UFC and the first elite fighter in their prime he fought was Justin Gaethje and we all know how that ended.
Although Ferguson is lauded for his jiu-jitsu, I think Olivera handles him on the ground but his size might be an issue. On the feet is where things get interesting. If you watch a 20-year-old Oliveria’s first few UFC fights you would never think he could become a great striker but 10 years later that’s exactly what he did. He is one of the few fighters to completely grow up as a pro in the UFC and despite coming in as a jiu-jitsu wizard and nothing else, he has now developed into one of the most well-rounded fighters on the roster. I think Ferguson was severely exposed by Gaethje and is taking this fight too soon after that hellacious beating. That along with being generally overrated throughout his career has me believe Oliveira finally proves himself as an elite contender in this one.
Props Of The Week: Billy Quarantillo inside the distance +300, Figueiredo inside the distance -150
This week there are two props I absolutely love. Firstly Figgy has finished 7 of his 9 UFC wins and with this being a 5 round fight, he has even more time for the finish. I think Moreno is talking a huge step up in competition and probably gets finished in under 2 rounds.
I also love Billy Q inside the distance for +300 odds. Billy’s pace breaks people and he has arguably the best cardio in the UFC today. Don’t believe me? Just go watch his fights. I think he slowly breaks Tucker on the feet and forces him into mistakes in the later rounds as his cardio dwindles and gets a late finish. Odds for 2nd round TKO are +1200 and 3rd round TKO is +1400 which I also like.
Kevin Wilson is a freelance MMA writer who specializes in pre-fight breakdowns and analysis. He has been an MMA fan since 2007 and has been writing about combat sports since he was 17 years old. His work can be found on Sherdog, MMA Today, and now MyMMANews!