The UFC put together another fantastic card for UFC 238.
We have Cejudo vs. Moraes in a Bantamweight title fight. Jessica Eye challenging Valentina Shevchenko for the female Lightweight title. In addition to the title fights, we have Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone. No disrespect to Cerrone, he’s a legend, but I’m surprised to see this matchup. Ferguson should be fighting for a title.
Online sportsbooks have odds on these fights, so let’s check them and see if they align with our thoughts.
Ferguson vs. Cerrone
It’s El Cucuy vs. The Cowboy. Two experienced fighters enter the octagon. Ferguson is listed at -135 for UFC 238, so just more than a slight favorite. But this isn’t the first time Cerrone has been in this position. In fact, this will be the 10th time that he’s been listed as the dog in the fight. And of those matches, he’s 5-4.
I must say, this might be the best fight of the night. Yes, we have two title fights, but this one could turn out to be the show-stopper.
Ferguson has been on a tear, running over the very best that the lightweight division has to offer (minus Khabib). Though he doesn’t hold the belt, he is the man to beat in this division. His conditioning is critical to his success. The guy can come at you at an ungodly pace and never slow down. He just doesn’t get tired.
Donald Cerrone does have a chance of taking this fight with his kickboxing skills. We’ve seen El Cucuy eat shots that put him down, but over the last few years … no one has been able to finish him before he recovers. This fight could turn out very similar to the Pettis match we saw a bit ago. Ferguson relentlessly attacking and wearing Donald Cerrone down, but not without taking some punishment.
Ferguson wins, but the Cowboy is resurging and will give us a show.
Cejudo vs. Moraes
It isn’t often that the challenger gets listed as the favorite over the champion. But that’s the case here. Westgate in Vegas has Cejudo at +115 and Moraes at -135 for UFC 238. These odds are fair. If these two fighters were the same size, it would be perfect for inverting those betting lines. But the fact is, Marlon Moraes is a much bigger fighter when it comes to their natural size and walking weight. Marlon will cut to make weight and then hit 155-plus easily on fight night.
Back in 2017 the California State Athletic Commission actually requested that Moraes move up in weight class because of his 14.5% weight-gain between weigh-ins and the fight. In other words, he’ll easily outweigh Cejudo by 10 pounds in the octagon.
We saw that Cejudo has power when he dropped Dillashaw, but Moraes is much bigger than TJ and also packs about 15 pounds of heat more behind his fists than Dillashaw. All in all, the size and power disadvantage might be too much to overcome for Cejudo.
If Henry can hang in there without getting caught, or manhandled, he can harry Moraes and wear him down. If this fight goes to a decision, Cejudo will probably win. He just has to last that long. Like I alluded to above … if these two fighters were the same size, Cejudo would have a clear technical advantage. But they’re not; Moraes has a clear advantage this weekend.