MMA betting: tracking line movement. Two tips for betting like a pro
For everyone of you who loves to bet on MMA fights and experiments with finding ways to bet like a pro, whether via betting sites in the Philippines or via sportsbooks all across the world, here are two tips that will help you critically advance your game.
Let’s see how you can use line movement to make smarter betting choices.
Use line movement in favorite/underdog betting
For many bettors, wagering on the favorite or underdog is a good strategy. And nobody can say that it is not. It is, if you manage to execute it properly.
Line movement tracking can help you make more clever bets by knowing when it is better to place your wager.
Suppose that you want to bet on the favorite of a given UFC match. The opening line of the game, as offered by the bookmakers, will provide some sort of value for the bettors. Obviously, since there is a favorite, the majority of bettors (and here we are talking about the casual bettors and the more advanced bettors as well) will pick this side of the bet to back.
This will cause a lot of bets to be accumulated on the favorite, which means that the bookmaker will risk losing money, if the favorite wins in the end. To prevent losses, the oddsmakers will move the line (the odds, the spread or the totals) against the favorite. They will make the underdog side more attractive, so as to attract more and more bets to this side also.
So, what’s the key takeaway from this? When betting on the favorite, it is better to do it early enough, when the bet line opens, so as to take advantage of the greater value. When betting on the underdog, it is better to wait and see how the line is going to move and if it goes where you want to go in terms of value, then you should place your wager.
Use line movement in choosing bets
Bettors don’t always begin their wagering action with an explicit decision over what to bet. Too often, they are just wondering which would be the best choice for them to pick in a game that they are interested in. They are unsure whether it has more value to bet on one side or another.
Line movement tracking can be really helpful in that manner too. If you haven’t yet made up your mind on the side of a bet that you should go about, then following how the line is moving can give you an edge.
Sudden, big movements in the betting line imply that something might be going on there. Maybe professional, experienced or sharp bettors have suddenly put a lot of money in an MMA fighter’s victory, for example, and this has caused the line to move quickly and with a relatively big change.
Should you see something like that, it probably means that the oddsmakers have responded to a large amount of bets placed on one side. But those who usually bet big money are the more Pros or sharp bettors, which means that they might know something or they might have an edge.
So, what do you do in that case? You assume that the bet had some sort of value and that bettors picked it for a reason. You then search for that bet in other sportsbooks, given that not all bookies react quickly to changes or respond at the same time to a trigger (the trigger here being the large amount of bets placed on the one side).
If you manage to find the bet at the odds or the line that attracted the interest of the professional or sharp bettors, then you might wanna think about placing a wager there. If there is a sportsbook that still has not responded to the market and has not moved the line, then there is certainly an opportunity for you.
