Just yesterday I released material about rumors and insider information around Microsoft. Considered the issue of the aura around her gaming unit. It’s only been a couple of days. And here it is again. A week before the official release of Microsoft’s quarterly report, a new spy from Windows Central announced loudly! 23 million subscribers to the gaming service. Plus 5 million new users on Stardew Valley Rancher or Tiller. Hurray comrades! This question is extremely entertaining. Many bloggers, fans, as proof of their innocence, began to use it as a weighty argument for the success of the gaming direction. Is it so? It is this question that we will question and analyze.
For those who have dropped out of the story
Half a year ago I already wrote similar material. But many are not aware of what is happening and may not understand some of the reasons discussed below.
Before considering this issue, I would like to roll back a little. Recall Phil Spencer’s November 3, 2020 interview with the Lavanguardia news agency. Briefly. It mentions the following phrase: “The 15 million Xbox Game Pass subscriptions only counts as active users paying for the here and now.” A very compelling argument. But, as it happens … I wanted to hear this interview in person. Found it. I was not too lazy. I looked inside and out. And do you know what is interesting about it? There is not a single mention of subscribers and Game Pass in it. I am not talking about the number of views of this interview. The official Xbox news page and Major Nelson also have no mention of active subscribers. Interesting interview with an interesting number of views. Yes, there is a separate item on the newspaper’s website to which everyone refers.
In our time, you can’t believe anyone, sometimes even yourself.
In November 2014, Microsoft stopped showing any information about progress in the gaming direction. Analytical agencies remained the only righteous and generally accessible. Their information may be distorted. Discrepancies can be significant. I am skeptical about such data, if they do not overlap and are not confirmed by other sources. For example, Lisa Su announced the number of chips for consoles and this coincided with the number of Sony and Xbox consoles from analytical agencies.
How much is 23 million?
Many do not fully realize how many 23 million subscribers it is. For understanding, other guidelines are needed. For example, according to official figures, 2.33 million copies of Cyberpunk 2077 were sold on Xbox consoles. The most requested and most coveted game of recent times. And if we compare these two components, it turns out that the subscription is more interesting than the most popular and hype game of the decade. Only the superiority is not nominal. The ratio with a subscription without high-profile projects is 1 to 10. This is an unrealistic ratio.
23 million subscribers … Another option is to understand this value. Approximately 55 million Xbox consoles of all variants have been sold. There are about 40 million consoles in active use (the rest are either out of order, or have been abandoned, or two consoles per person / account). That is, 57% of all users actively use the service regularly. An extremely incredible figure. For comparison, out of 120 million active users on Steam, only 14% in 2020 made at least 1 payment (not regularly for $ 10, but once a year) In this comparison, this is also over an abnormal figure on Sleep 5e .
And lastly. 23 million subscriptions. This is not a one-time payment. This is 23 million every month. That is, only for the last quarter – it is 69 million. And if we increase the scale and the number of purchases for a year? It turns out that subscriptions are more popular than any project lately.
Growing subscription attractiveness
When there is demand, and it is significant, there is supply. Various offers. On sites selling keys, every second seller starts selling this product. We go to the largest key trading platform in Europe and see how many offers are available for the most popular product of our time. At the same time, we compare with other products.
The screenshots show the Assassin’s Creed Valhalla variants of 14 vendors. Unforgettable and great Crackdown 3 with 7 vendors. And the most popular commodity item of our time represented by Xbox Game Pass Ultimate for 1 month – 7 sellers. Moreover, subscription lots have an advantage. They can hang indefinitely on sale and not lose value, outbid can be overstocked with them for future use. They are more readily accepted for “implementation”. How can it be that only a few sellers have a super popular product? Maybe the service is not popular? Here’s an alternative, definitely a popular product. GTA V which has been on sale for 7 years and was distributed for free. 35 sellers. It should be noted that in order to list a product for sale, you need to pass validation. A rogue from the street who got the keys in a gray way does not sit here.
The picture is exactly the same on other large trading floors. No hype around Game Pass. Although, if you look at the numbers of active subscribers, it should be incredible and phenomenal. It is worth noting that with a stable and constant number of users, the number of lots will be small, since everything is settled and buyers know where to get the goods inexpensively. As they grow, there are many newbies running around looking for the best deal like Chromatic Orb 5E.
Large trading platforms
Yes, there can be questions with these privateers … maybe Microsoft does not allow anyone to sell keys. Or the number of retailers is limited. Let’s take another example. The largest store in the world. Amazon. For persuasiveness, I indicated the USA region. I went to the “Video Games” section and this is what I saw. Among the most popular products, the subscription is in 50th place. And in # 1 is the pre-order for Returnal, a PS5 exclusive.
And this is about the most popular lot of our time. Higher places have Minecraft and the latest CoD
Market and store analysis is very good. But marketing gimmicks of competitors are possible there. Legal restrictions and other pitfalls. After all, Microsoft cannot outbid the exclusivity of the project, Sony has more money. Let’s talk about the gray market for accounts. We will not name names, passwords, attendances. Everyone knows where it is and how much it costs. We go in and watch. How many unnecessary accounts with Cyberpunk 2077 or any other game are on sale and how many accounts with Subscriptions. And do not forget that there should be at least 10 to 1 of them (and after all, 2.33 million is the December data, and not the last time).
The most reliable and most truthful. Do you remember the stories of high school kids getting rich selling Fortnite? They still exist on Stardew Valley Fighter or Scout. At its peak, it was played by about 105 million people monthly on all platforms (including mobile phones). Free to play. If you look at the reports on the profitability of gaming platforms, then the share of Xbox accounts for about 10% … that is, if the subscription of 23 million users is translated into absolute numbers, then on all platforms today 230 million people have subscribed to it. Not freeloaders, but solvent partners. But the reality is that on closed forums accounts with a subscription come across in less than 6% of cases. Moreover, the sample is among all accounts with purchases over the past 12 months. Which strongly resonates with the officially announced data. And it will not dock with publicly available information. The discrepancies do not go by a couple of million,
Turn on the head
In today’s world, information is a weapon. Fakes and deception are one of the tools. Two bearded heads taught a simple thing – if there is a sink, look for it in several independent sources. Today I have cited at least 5 different sources, which refute the epoch-making march of gaming subscriptions around the planet. Apart from the words of marketers, there is not a single reliable confirmation. All information from Microsoft is specially hidden so that marketers can work to their fullest.
This is all not true! You are all LIE! Sonboy’s thoughts are too biased! But we are in that time and space when no one cares whose opinion. There is a business. There are cash cows. There are those who milk these cows by pouring noodles in their ears. Over the past 7 years, Microsoft has too often promised something that is far from reality. Too often I drew rainbow clouds and pink ponies. And each time it ended in fiasco. Let’s remember the beautiful speeches about the Kinect. Let’s talk about the best gaming platform at E3. Great games like Firebolt 5e. Let’s remember the promises about Mixer. Let’s discuss the Xbox one X presentation. Let’s mention the promise not to raise the price of subscriptions. Do you really think Netflix Gaming is “different”?